| MathGeek |
06-20-2013 09:55 AM |
As y'all know, my team has been weighing and measuring fish in the tournament area for the past few years. In total we've weighed and measured over 750 specks, redfish, black drum, and gafftops. We have completed some preliminary analysis of the 2013 data which allows us to make some interesting assessments that will probably affect the tournament:
1. Specks averaged 3-5% under the expected weights for their length in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, specks were up to 3% above the expected weight for their length. All other species (red drum, black drum, and gafftop catfish) were all significantly plumper (on average) than in 2012, but specks are up the most, and all other species remain below the long term average weights at a given length. This suggests that there are plenty of shrimp, mullet, croaker, and menhaden in the lake this year, and that specks are eating much better than other species and better than they have in previous years. If fishing conditions are good, we'd expect the winning stringer of specks to me significantly heavier than it has been in the past few years.
2. Redfish 16-20" long are fatter than they have been in recent years and slightly above the long term Louisiana average expected weight for their length, reflecting their ability to chase down and feed effectively on the same forage sources that the specks are doing so well on this summer. However, the biggest bull reds are down to about 81% of the expected weight for their length compared with the long term state averages. Those 36-44" behemoths simply are not as fat as they usually are, reflecting a shortage of their preferred food sources in the areas they are feeding. A kayak team who has a strategy to bring in two fat fish might do better than the team catching the longest fish.
3. Much like the bull reds, the bull drum are skinny compared with the long term Louisiana average, weighing only 83% of the expected weights for bull black drum. We have linked this to the decimation of the oyster reefs in big lake. I expect that the winning trash fish will either be caught on an oyster reef that still has an excellent quantity of adult oysters or from close to a fish cleaning station where it has learned to make a living without depending on traditionally preferred oyster reef habitat.
The lunar tides during the tournament period are expected to be on the slack side, so unless the wind is moving the water, anglers with skill in fishing the slack tide and light currents will have an advantage. I expect the winning redfish will come from a kayak team fishing close to the channel or possibly launching at the beach and fishing either the beach or the western cut of the jetties (still a good spot with minimal tides.) On the plus side, the tournament is just a couple days before the new moon, so fish won't be feeding strongly at night and should be hungry at first light.
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