Gulf of Mexico disturbance a threat to develop
 

I know we need the rain BUT dang, did it have to come in on a holiday weekend!

This is from underground weather forcast:

Surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico are rising today in advance of the approach of a tropical wave currently over the Western Caribbean, western tip of Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This wave is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The wave is slowly beginning to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms, and this process will accelerate on Thursday when the wave enters the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, when the wave will be near the Louisiana or Texas coast, wind shear is expected to drop to low to moderate levels, and the wave may be able to organize into a tropical depression. This process will likely take several days, and formation of a tropical depression is more likely Saturday or Sunday. NHC is giving the wave just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Regardless, this system will spread heavy rains to portions of the Gulf Coast by Friday, with the Upper Texas coast and the coast of Louisiana the most likely recipients of heavy rain. Strong onshore winds raising tides to 1 - 2 feet above normal are likely over Louisiana beginning on Friday, and coastal flood statements have been issued for the region. Three of our four top models for predicting tropical cyclone development forecast that a tropical depression will form this weekend or early next week, and I think it is at least 50% likely we will have Tropical Depression 13 on our hands by Monday. However, steering currents will be weak in the Gulf, and it is difficult to predict where the storm might go.The GFS model has a possible tropical depression forming by Sunday off the coast of Mississippi, then moving east-northeast over the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The ECMWF model forms the storm on Monday off the coast of Texas, and leaves the storm stalled out there through Wednesday. The UKMET model forms the storm Saturday off the coast of Louisiana, and leaves it stalled out there through Monday. If the storm did remain in the Gulf of Mexico for three days as some of the recent model runs have been predicting, it would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane.

Part of living on the coast! Hope it rains hard at the deer lease in north la!

Of course right before teal season to get them real good and scattered

We are evacuating some non-essentials today. Will start shuffling a bunch to the beach tomorrow and preparing to shut in after we see about where it will be heading.
Different weather people are saying different directions.

Well Ray, you were wrong about the weather.






This time

i sure hope so

And we are suppose to come back on Line Sun after being shut in for 7 months.....

Yep.

Headed in tomorrow AM. After the last few storms with Platforms falling over, I'd rather not ride out anything out here tropical storm , depression, hurricane. About right though weather will suck my week off......

This is a typical weekend before Teal Season...it seems like ever year we are bone dry and we have 2million teal in our Rice fields....them we get 40inchs of rain and spreads them out..... About 9 years ago...my dad was limiting out in or pasture that was flooded with rain water

As dry as things are, it will take a lot of rain for all these dry fields to hold at least 6" of water. our lease needs at least 10" of rain. Hope we get it.

x2! We gonna go from no water to too much water before teal season

Im gonna go catch some fishes regardless of the RAIN unless its a darn blown out stormmm....Im hungry and mad at the fishes.

My spots are all tidal, however I do need rain for deer lease ponds for the greenwings mallards and woodies

I cant wait till duck season, Ill have the whole LAKE to myself, "W" wont even be out there....vac. is coming soon and yall be hunting and Ill be fishing....Might make a duck trip in there once or so....NO POTLICKERS COMING SOON..lol.

That storm will suck the water out of Big Lake and the tidal marshes if it heads to SE La. like the models show.

Hopefully we have so many teal it won't matter what this does, but we sure could use a bunch of rain at our place and my buddies place in Woodworth. I hope it dumps hard!

Lovin marsh huntin!

They just showed the storm on whether channel.....doesn't look good!!

Forecast models have it doing loops in the gulf well into next week.....never seen that before

Whos gettn affected this weekend, or is gonna hover in the gulf all weekend...

Most models have it south of Louisiana, so we be affected.

What website do you use to track the forecast?

Even if we get 10" of rain the ground will soak up most of it.

I use stormpulse.com

Here is the latest from underground weather...
 

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 93L a Lousiana flood threat


Surface winds over the northern Gulf of Mexico are rising, pressures are falling, and heavy thunderstorms are building today thanks to a tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that is the product of a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. At 8:35 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were south-southeast at 38 mph. This is just 1 mph below tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 30 mph. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not organized into spiral bands and show no signs of rotation. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating 30 knots of wind shear over 93L, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized. Strong onshore winds raising tides to 1 - 2 feet above normal are likely along the northern Gulf Coast through the weekend, and coastal flood statements have been issued for the region.
By late tonight, wind shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, below 20 knots, and 93L should begin to organize into a tropical depression. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, into Monday. There is some cold, dry air aloft that will retard this process, and I think the earliest we would see a tropical depression is Friday afternoon. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. All of the major models develop 93L near the Louisiana coast, and show a slow and erratic movement due to weak steering currents. Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains beginning this afternoon and intensifying Friday and Saturday. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center (Figure 1) shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Nevertheless, minor to moderate freshwater flooding is likely from 93L, and flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31.3°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help 93L strengthen into a tropical storm. Most of the models predict 93L will have some motion to the west by Saturday, which would bring rains to the Texas coast near the Louisiana border. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, making it difficult to predict where the storm might go. If 93L stays over water through Tuesday, like the ECMWF model is predicting, the storm would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane. Most of the other models predict 93L will move ashore over Louisiana by Sunday, limiting the storm's development to just tropical storm strength. I think it at least 50% likely 93L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 60 mph winds along the coast of Louisiana by Sunday.