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-   -   East Side your Limit drop is comming (http://www.saltycajun.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41682)

"W" 03-01-2013 03:03 PM

East Side your Limit drop is comming
 
Also note the info about Big Lake added!!

http://www.nola.com/outdoors/index.s...l#incart_river

Louisiana's speckled trout population has fallen below the level that for years has been used as the conservation standard, according to information provided to NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife & Fisheries.

Responding to a list of emailed questions, saltwater fisheries biologist Harry Blanchet said spawning potential ratio of speckled trout was between 8 and 14 percent the last time it was calculated in 2011.

Even at the high end of the estimate, spawning potential ratio is still well below the previously established conservation standard of 18 percent.

Spawning potential ratio, or SPR, is a number that represents the percentage of biomass for adult members of a particular fish species compared to what would exist in a completely virgin fishery. In this case, department biologists estimate Louisiana has 8 to 14 percent of the mature speckled-trout biomass it would have if the fish were completely off-limits to humans.

In general, when SPR falls below a certain threshold, that particular fishery is unable to sustain itself.

Retired LSU fisheries professor Jerald Horst said we're not necessarily there with speckled trout.

"The truth is that any of these standards are best guesses," he said. "But the number is clearly below the conservation standard of 18."

Horst said that overfishing usually first manifests itself in a smaller number of bigger fish being caught.

"Generally speaking, you'll see fewer big fish at first," he said. "It takes four years to grow a big (speckled trout). If we're cropping more fish at a smaller size, then obviously fewer of them will have the chance to get big."

Chas Champagne believes we may be at the point. The owner of Dockside Bait & Tackle in Slidell has seen a significant decline in the size of fish that cross over his gunwale while fishing the bridges in eastern Lake Pontchartrain.

"From 2000 to 2003, just in the fall, I probably caught 50 6-plus-pound speckled trout," he said. "If you had a calm day, you could go and make a couple hundred casts and almost guarantee a 4-pound trout or better. Now, if you catch a 3-pounder, you start taking pictures.

"I took it for granted. I was 15 to 17 years old. I just figured that's how it would be forever."

Farther to the south, former STAR winner Ed Sexton says there are far fewer big trout in the Venice area than a decade ago.

"I have fished for trout for 15 years, and it's definitely declined from when I first started," he said. "Last year, I caught one trout that was 7 pounds. I can remember 10 years ago, almost every trip when the fishing was good, if you didn't catch a 6- or 7-pound trout, that was unusual."

But Horst said it's impossible to peg the decline on overfishing. Many variables, including weather and river levels, have a tremendous impact on speckled trout reproduction, he said.

Still, it's undeniable that the SPR is falling. Horst said Wildlife & Fisheries has pointed to episodic events in the past to explain away numbers that are below the conservation standard.

"But now the average SPR is below the standard, so now we either have to come up with a different reason or change the standard," he said.

Changing a minimum conservation standard isn't unheard of in science. In fact, it should be part of the norm, Horst said, as better testing methods are developed and more information is gathered.

"There is no clear-cut standard that is 100-percent right all the time," Horst said. "If we treat these numbers as iron-clad standards, that's how we end up with a situation like we have with red snapper. We've got red snapper coming out of our ears. We're gagging on them, but we have a 27-day season."

In his emailed response, Blanchet said Louisiana's SPR estimates are in line with those of Mississippi (6-13 percent) and North Carolina (4-15 percent).

But Horst said, if we are overfishing speckled trout, it isn't any wonder as to why. An avid trout fisherman himself, Horst said anglers have gotten remarkably more efficient at targeting and harvesting trout.

"Without a doubt, fishing pressure is higher," he said. "Not just in numbers of people but in equipment. We have everything from Power-Poles to graphite rods to braided lines to depth finders. It's really something.

"When commercial fishermen went from nylon to monofilament gill nets, it really alarmed all sport fishermen, but it was not one-tenth of the increase in effectiveness that recreational fishing has had in the last four decades."

If the department determines that speckled trout are, in fact, overfished, any changes in regulation will have to be severe, Horst said.

"When the time finally comes that we do reduce creel limits, it won't be to 15. That's not enough," Horst said. "The result would be too small."

That's borne out in numbers Blanchet supplied. According to LDWF research data, 66 percent of anglers catch five or fewer speckled trout per trip, 3 percent catch 10 per trip, 2 percent catch 15 per trip and 4 percent catch 25 per trip.

"Dropping the limit to six would only impact 34 percent of the fishermen," Horst said. "Anglers need to be ready because if the regulation ever changes, it could be a five-, six- or seven-fish limit. You've got to have an impact if you're going to make the change."

Currently, Southwest Louisiana is under a special management regime for speckled trout. Anglers there may harvest only 15 fish per day with no more than two measuring in excess of 25 inches.

That regulation has had very little impact on the fishery there, as the department predicted.

"Our analyses indicated that the results of those regulations would be a small (about 10 percent) change in the harvest, less in stock size," Blanchet wrote.

The measure was pushed by local anglers and implemented by the Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission. It was not proposed or supported by department biologists.

Horst said at some point, Louisiana will have to change its speckled trout regulations, but he wouldn't venture a guess as to when. Will it be sometime in the next 10 years?

"I don't know," he said. "If the price of gas goes to $17 a gallon, then the answer's no. If our marsh decline causes the fishery to collapse, then the answer's yes. But I've been hearing we're right on the verge of that for 30 years."


I Want to point this out also:
----------------------------------------
Currently, Southwest Louisiana is under a special management regime for speckled trout. Anglers there may harvest only 15 fish per day with no more than two measuring in excess of 25 inches.

That regulation has had very little impact on the fishery there, as the department predicted.

"Our analyses indicated that the results of those regulations would be a small (about 10 percent) change in the harvest, less in stock size," Blanchet wrote.

The measure was pushed by local anglers and implemented by the Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission. It was not proposed or supported by department biologists.

Duck Butter 03-01-2013 03:18 PM

Wow


10 pages before this goes into the Gill Net:rotfl:

"W" 03-01-2013 03:22 PM

Can you see the roit in Grand Isle to Venice with a 6-7 trout limit...L M A O

Again .2 % catches 100% of the fish

Two weeks ago at Hebert (on a saturday ) the girl from WLF was doing a fish count

90 boats ...
3 guides had limit
Us and one other boat had limits ..
Rest were 3-8 trout per boat

Bluechip 03-01-2013 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555038)
Can you see the roit in Grand Isle to Venice with a 6-7 trout limit...L M A O

Again .2 % catches 100% of the fish

Two weeks ago at Hebert (on a saturday ) the girl from WLF was doing a fish count

90 boats ...
3 guides had limit
Us and one other boat had limits ..
Rest were 3-8 trout per boat

So this means they need to lower the limit on the guides and problem solved.......:D

"W" 03-01-2013 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluechip (Post 555040)
So this means they need to lower the limit on the guides and problem solved.......:D

They need to up the limits for guides to 40 trout per person and then you willsee 9-10lb trout winning the Star again

mriguy 03-01-2013 03:28 PM

25 or bust!!!!!!!!

Montauk17 03-01-2013 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555038)
Can you see the roit in Grand Isle to Venice with a 6-7 trout limit...L M A O

Again .2 % catches 100% of the fish

Two weeks ago at Hebert (on a saturday ) the girl from WLF was doing a fish count

90 boats ...
3 guides had limit
Us and one other boat had limits ..
Rest were 3-8 trout per boat

If that would happen it would not just be the east side.....big lake would have the same limits.

"W" 03-01-2013 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montauk17 (Post 555051)
If that would happen it would not just be the east side.....big lake would have the same limits.

No...we are ran by rich office fisherman politics that would have a grandfather clause because there guide buddies would be effected

Big Lake is in a whole different category !!!

You can book mark that...


But if the State goes down big lake needs to go down also... Or we will be flooded

Montauk17 03-01-2013 03:40 PM

If the limit drops that low statewide and big lake is still 15 imagine the fishing pressure. People will be driving from new orleans to fish big lake.

bayouchub 03-01-2013 03:42 PM

25 or bust

Bluechip 03-01-2013 03:43 PM

We will be down to Texas limits soon....... Ole' "W" will be posting pics with the Sheephead lol....:eek:

MathGeek 03-01-2013 03:43 PM

The article was remiss in failing to point out that the current 4 year old trout that seem to be in short supply in the eastern LA fisheries were juveniles in 2010 when the Deepwater Horizon oil spill occurred. Current 3 year old trout were in the 2010 birth class. The impact of the oil spill on spotted seatrout has been studied in detail, but the final results have not yet been released. See:

http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org...ct.php?pid=150

It would be a shame to put the blame on overfishing for reduced stocks and reproductive potential if the oil spill was really a dominant factor in the current dip.

It would also be an error to reduce limits on spotted seatrout before it is better established that the number of adults rather than habitat or some other life history issue is the biggest bottleneck regarding recruitment of new seatrout into the fishery.

The Draconian limits on red snapper assume that the biomass of breeding adults dominates the number of age zero and age 1 fish entering the fishery, but after many years of study it finally seems clear that other life history details dominate the number of age 0 and age 1 fish and the number of recruits entering the fishery is not strongly correlated with the biomass of breeding fish.

It is well known that if there are fewer breeding adults, they eat a lot better because there is less competition for available food. Better body condition from available forage can lead to much higher fecundity rates. Half the number of plumper breeding fish can produce more eggs than twice the number of poorly fed fish. Fecundity rates depend strongly on body condition.

The article also missed the possibility that reduced numbers of large fish may be due to slower growth rates caused by greater competition for food due to underharvesting of smaller fish or some other factor having a significant negative impact on the food supply. This can be studied either with a growth rate study or with a relative condition factor study. If the fish are overharvested, then the remaining fish will be plumper for their length because they are well fed. If the fish are underharvested, they will be thin.

mikedatiger 03-01-2013 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluechip (Post 555063)
We will be down to Texas limits soon....... Ole' "W" will be posting pics with the Sheephead lol....:eek:

Since I started focusing on fishing here in TX, I have no problem with the limit, which is 10 on Galveston/Trinity Bay. It seems like all focus is on the limit in LA - i.e. if you didn't catch 15 or 25 you had a terrible trip. I've never once been fishing here when our boat said, man we gotta catch 2 more to limit. And yes, we limit and catch really good fish...

Montauk17 03-01-2013 03:55 PM

I could care less what the limit is cause I only keep enough to eat fresh and give the rest away.

calcutta37 03-01-2013 04:11 PM

24 ft HO for sale lol

25 or bust......

"W" 03-01-2013 04:41 PM

25 or Bust

I catch 7 trout in a bucket ,,,,,

mikedatiger 03-01-2013 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555078)
25 or Bust

I catch 7 trout in a bucket_i.e. Big Lake ,,,,,

when you coming to fish TX??;)

Duck Butter 03-01-2013 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathGeek (Post 555064)
The article was remiss in failing to point out that the current 4 year old trout that seem to be in short supply in the eastern LA fisheries were juveniles in 2010 when the Deepwater Horizon oil spill occurred. Current 3 year old trout were in the 2010 birth class. The impact of the oil spill on spotted seatrout has been studied in detail, but the final results have not yet been released. See:

http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org...ct.php?pid=150

It would be a shame to put the blame on overfishing for reduced stocks and reproductive potential if the oil spill was really a dominant factor in the current dip.

It would also be an error to reduce limits on spotted seatrout before it is better established that the number of adults rather than habitat or some other life history issue is the biggest bottleneck regarding recruitment of new seatrout into the fishery.

The Draconian limits on red snapper assume that the biomass of breeding adults dominates the number of age zero and age 1 fish entering the fishery, but after many years of study it finally seems clear that other life history details dominate the number of age 0 and age 1 fish and the number of recruits entering the fishery is not strongly correlated with the biomass of breeding fish.

It is well known that if there are fewer breeding adults, they eat a lot better because there is less competition for available food. Better body condition from available forage can lead to much higher fecundity rates. Half the number of plumper breeding fish can produce more eggs than twice the number of poorly fed fish. Fecundity rates depend strongly on body condition.

The article also missed the possibility that reduced numbers of large fish may be due to slower growth rates caused by greater competition for food due to underharvesting of smaller fish or some other factor having a significant negative impact on the food supply. This can be studied either with a growth rate study or with a relative condition factor study. If the fish are overharvested, then the remaining fish will be plumper for their length because they are well fed. If the fish are underharvested, they will be thin.

LDWF needs someone like yourself that is very knowledgeable about statistics, crunching numbers, and experimental design. Too many of the current employees are just biding their time to retire and do not keep up with the current science out there :). There are fisheries data going back for years and years that could be useful today that just sits away on old floppy disks:help:

"W" 03-01-2013 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikedatiger (Post 555066)
Since I started focusing on fishing here in TX, I have no problem with the limit, which is 10 on Galveston/Trinity Bay. It seems like all focus is on the limit in LA - i.e. if you didn't catch 15 or 25 you had a terrible trip. I've never once been fishing here when our boat said, man we gotta catch 2 more to limit. And yes, we limit and catch really good fish...

You like fishing Texas because you can't catch a reduced big lake limit ..lol

Texas talking a lunch

Well Bob we had a good day; had 4 trout between 18-27inchs , 2 reds and limit of sheepead

La boys talking

How did you do..... I didn't even fish today (fails to say he only has 5 shy of limit)

mikedatiger 03-01-2013 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555081)
You like fishing Texas because you can't catch a reduced big lake limit ..lol

Texas talking a lunch

Well Bob we had a good day; had 4 trout between 18-27inchs , 2 reds and limit of sheepead

La boys talking

How did you do..... I didn't even fish today (fails to say he only has 5 shy of limit)

you are just mad your little dink ruler won't work here in TX :D

going sunday and have a spot open... just saying.

"W" 03-01-2013 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikedatiger (Post 555084)
you are just mad your little dink ruler won't work here in TX :D

going sunday and have a spot open... just saying.

We going catch 45 Sunday .... Me reed and darren

Super Spook 03-01-2013 05:19 PM

Like Mathgeek said he didn't even mention the Spill or all the storms that have nailed the east side in the past 8 years. I find it real hard to believe that an estuary the size of Venice could be overfished with a rod and reel.

meaux fishing 03-01-2013 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555038)
Can you see the roit in Grand Isle to Venice with a 6-7 trout limit...L M A O

Again .2 % catches 100% of the fish

Two weeks ago at Hebert (on a saturday ) the girl from WLF was doing a fish count

90 boats ...
3 guides had limit
Us and one other boat had limits ..
Rest were 3-8 trout per boat

that would be 6 or 9% actually depending on your standards not .2%

Im sure there were 90 boats launching from heberts in february :shaking:

"W" 03-01-2013 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meaux fishing (Post 555094)
that would be 6 or 9% actually depending on your standards not .2%

Im sure there were 90 boats launching from heberts in february :shaking:

No..... Some from Cal point / Heberts....it was actually in January

YellaBlazer 03-01-2013 07:12 PM

All this does is penalize the good trout fishermen. This isn't golf. There's no such thing as a handicap to keep everyone "equal", which is what they are trying to do.

They don't consider that, because a bunch of yahoos only caught 6 trout all day, maybe they're just lousy fishermen and that the trout stock is fine.

It's been said a thousand times, 10% of the fishermen catch 90% of the fish...

"W" 03-01-2013 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YellaBlazer (Post 555119)
All this does is penalize the good trout fishermen. This isn't golf. There's no such thing as a handicap to keep everyone "equal", which is what they are trying to do.

They don't consider that, because a bunch of yahoos only caught 6 trout all day, maybe they're just lousy fishermen and that the trout stock is fine.

It's been said a thousand times, 10% of the fishermen catch 90% of the fish...



100% dead on... You have guys who big motor on reefs , throw anchors, think a pop n cork is the only way , slams boxes in boat, runs TM wide open, castnet on reefs , drives over fishing spot and turns around to fish it

But they catch 2 fish and stocks gone

"W" 03-01-2013 07:29 PM

I would also love to see some evidence that the oil spill hurt the trout ..... Because Venice , Cocodrie , V Bay were not effected at all and Lake P

rustyb 03-01-2013 07:55 PM

I think everyone agrees that most of what they base al there numbers on is fuzzy at best.

YellaBlazer 03-01-2013 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555122)
I would also love to see some evidence that the oil spill hurt the trout ..... Because Venice , Cocodrie , V Bay were not effected at all and Lake P

I don't know about hard evidence, but we've had one of the best trout years in a while this year.

Trout aren't stupid. All they did was move when all this was going on. They flooded Barataria with the diversions, and the trout and bait moved to higher salinities to the west.

No fish will stay in an area that won't support it.

"W" 03-01-2013 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YellaBlazer (Post 555129)
I don't know about hard evidence, but we've had one of the best trout years in a while this year.

Trout aren't stupid. All they did was move when all this was going on. They flooded Barataria with the diversions, and the trout and bait moved to higher salinities to the west.

No fish will stay in an area that won't support it.

yep.... but its Bush's fault

And with closing the areas for months from fishing.... Should of stocked up for years

Reefman 03-01-2013 09:15 PM

We've become our own worst enemy. To say that trout fishing is as good as it was 20 years ago is not facing the reality of fishing success, or lack there of, today. The presure placed on our resources of trout is infinitely higher than it was back then. I beleive that fishing presure has indeed impacted the fisheries. BL looks like a parking lot on weekends with all the boats beatin the waters. T Butte can have over 50 boats in a small area on calm days. Diamond not much better. The rigs out of
vermilion looks like LaFonda; you need a number to wait in line to fish live bait. Cocodrie is overcrowded on any given day.There are far more people fishing today than there were in the 80-90s.

History will repeat itself in trout fishing just as it did in bass fishing. There are too many competing for an over fished and over stressed trout population. Again, only my personal observations fishing trout for over forty years. I do agree that 10% of the fishermen out there do catch the majority of the fish. However there are 20 times better fishermen now than there were 20 years ago.

We are the custodians of our resources today. Every effort should be made to acknowledge what problems face our natural resources and act accordingly. Responsibilities lay with us to protect them. We need factual information by our WLF along with coastal scientific studies specific to trout populations made public. I just can't see our trout fishing taking the pounding it has over the past ten years continue without a colapse in this fisheries. Just MHO.....

"W" 03-01-2013 09:25 PM

I have servers guide services on my facebook from the east side and during the summer,fall and spring months , they are posting limits of 100-125 trout by 9am almost everyday

No shortage in those locations

Montauk17 03-01-2013 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reefman (Post 555145)
We've become our own worst enemy. To say that trout fishing is as good as it was 20 years ago is not facing the reality of fishing success, or lack there of, today. The presure placed on our resources of trout is infinitely higher than it was back then. I beleive that fishing presure has indeed impacted the fisheries. BL looks like a parking lot on weekends with all the boats beatin the waters. T Butte can have over 50 boats in a small area on calm days. Diamond not much better. The rigs out of
vermilion looks like LaFonda; you need a number to wait in line to fish live bait. Cocodrie is overcrowded on any given day.There are far more people fishing today than there were in the 80-90s.

History will repeat itself in trout fishing just as it did in bass fishing. There are too many competing for an over fished and over stressed trout population. Again, only my personal observations fishing trout for over forty years. I do agree that 10% of the fishermen out there do catch the majority of the fish. However there are 20 times better fishermen now than there were 20 years ago.

We are the custodians of our resources today. Every effort should be made to acknowledge what problems face our natural resources and act accordingly. Responsibilities lay with us to protect them. We need factual information by our WLF along with coastal scientific studies specific to trout populations made public. I just can't see our trout fishing taking the pounding it has over the past ten years continue without a colapse in this fisheries. Just MHO.....

Well said

Bluechip 03-01-2013 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montauk17 (Post 555151)
Well said

X 2 ...

Dink 03-01-2013 09:45 PM

X3

Reefman 03-01-2013 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555149)
I have servers guide services on my facebook from the east side and during the summer,fall and spring months , they are posting limits of 100-125 trout by 9am almost everyday

No shortage in those locations

Right you are W; however, look at what they're catching and how they're catching. Juvenile to maybe 14 inch fish. Guides reluctant to leave landing without live shrimp. Trout that haven't reached spawning age. It's a numbers game as you well know. I'll take 10 fish from BL or VB anyday over what the 25 they catch east of here. Do we really need to be catching 100 trout a day to call it a successful trip. Those guides might be catching a bunch now but look at the other 99.99% of fishermen in those same waters. They're not catching those numbers today like they did years ago.

"W" 03-01-2013 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reefman (Post 555170)
Right you are W; however, look at what they're catching and how they're catching. Juvenile to maybe 14 inch fish. Guides reluctant to leave landing without live shrimp. Trout that haven't reached spawning age. It's a numbers game as you well know. I'll take 10 fish from BL or VB anyday over what the 25 they catch east of here. Do we really need to be catching 100 trout a day to call it a successful trip. Those guides might be catching a bunch now but look at the other 99.99% of fishermen in those same waters. They're not catching those numbers today like they did years ago.

I don't know how good Buras area is year round but I see Matt Caire with loads of 3-5lb trout all the time .

I also know that areas farther east have never been known for large trout like grand isle/ cocodrie and parts of Venice


Trout will spawn at least once before reaching legal size of 12inchs . One thing is for sure. They better have solid hard facts before reducing trout limits , because once they go down , they will never come back up.

Montauk17 03-01-2013 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555173)
I don't know how good Buras area is year round but I see Matt Caire with loads of 3-5lb trout all the time .

I also know that areas farther east have never been known for large trout like grand isle/ cocodrie and parts of Venice


Trout will spawn at least once before reaching legal size of 12inchs . One thing is for sure. They better have solid hard facts before reducing trout limits , because once they go down , they will never come back up.

Never say never....look what they are doing with bass limits. Cajuns will be able to keep 10" bass.

Dink 03-01-2013 10:11 PM

Size is coming up in cocodrie. Grand isle has always been a 16" fish heaven. Venice size has gone down......used to be known for hogs......who really knows the reasons.....pressure has risen TREMENDOUSLY in he last 7-8 years......thats when the changes started

Montauk17 03-01-2013 10:15 PM

Loss of habitat for the young fish has a huge effect as well....

Dink 03-01-2013 10:17 PM

Yep

Montauk17 03-01-2013 10:19 PM

Stunning new data not yet publicly released shows Louisiana losing its battle with rising seas much more quickly than even the most pessimistic studies have predicted to date.

While state officials continue to argue over restoration projects to save the state’s sinking, crumbling coast, top researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have concluded that Louisiana is in line for the highest rate of sea-level rise “on the planet.” * Indeed, the water is rising so fast that some coastal restoration projects could be obsolete before they are completed, the officials said.
NOAA’s Tim Osborne, an 18-year veteran of Louisiana coastal surveys, and Steve Gill, senior scientist at the agency’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, spelled out the grim reality in interviews with The Lens. When new data on the rate of coastal subsidence is married with updated projections of sea-level rise, the southeast corner of Louisiana looks likely to be under at least 4.3 feet of gulf water by the end of the century.

NOAA
Port Fourchon experienced serious flooding from Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in Galveston, Texas in 2008. Scientists say such flooding will become more common, even in smaller storms, as the coast sinks and sea level rises.

That rate could swamp projects in the state’s current coastal Master Plan, which incorporated worst-case scenarios for relative sea-level rise calculated two years ago— which the new figures now make out-of-date. (The state’s estimates of sea-level rise and subsidence are listed on page 83 of the Master Plan.)

The state plan, while “valuable and thoughtful,” has a major flaw, Osborne said.

“The problem is it’s a master plan for the restoration and conservation of a landscape that is moving downward at a faster rate than we realized when the plan was constructed—a rate faster than any place else we are seeing in the world for such a large land area,” said Osborne, who will be a speaker Saturday at Tulane University’s Summit on Environmental Law and Policy.

“With all due respect,” he said, “they have projects designed to last 50 years at one level of relative sea-level rise, when they should be building projects that can function for several generations as sea level rises twice as high, if not higher.”

Garret Graves, head of the state Coastal Planning and Protection Authority, did not respond to a request for comment. But in an earlier interview he said the uncertainty of future rates of sea-level rise was one of the biggest challenges facing the plan. The planners, he said, typically have incorporated the then-current “worst case” scenarios for sea-level rise at those locations.

Graves also pointed out that the plan was structured to adapt to changing circumstances. The Coastal Planning and Protection Authority must submit an updated plan to the state Legislature for approval every five years.

Yet NOAA’s new figures, contained in draft reports currently under peer review, will present a challenge because the numbers have changed so drastically. Even heavily populated areas, such as New Orleans, appear to be sinking faster than expected, in fact even faster than some areas along the coast.

More precise tools show coast sinking faster than expected
Southeast Louisiana—with an average elevation just three feet above sea level—has long been considered one of the landscapes most threatened by global warming. That’s because the delta it’s built on – starved of river sediment and sliced by canals — is sinking at the same time that oceans are rising. The combination of those two forces is called relative sea-level rise, and its impact can be dramatic.

For example, tide-gauge measurements at Grand Isle, about 50 miles south of New Orleans, have shown an average annual sea-level rise over the past few decades of 9.24 millimeters (about one-third of an inch) while those at Key West, which has very little subsidence, read only 2.24 millimeters.

For decades coastal planners used that Grand Isle gauge as the benchmark for the worst case of local sea-level rise because it was one of the highest in the world. But as surveying crews began using more advanced instruments, they made a troubling discovery.

Readings at a distance inland were even worse than at Grand Isle. “For example,” Osborne said, “we have rates of 11.2 millimeters along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain—the metro New Orleans area. And inside the city we have places with almost [a half-inch] per year.

“So when we looked at the averages we were getting inside the coast, we realized the current figure we should be using for [southeastern] Louisiana is 11.2 millimeters.”

The news got only more bleak when NOAA began using the new technologies to update past rates of local subsidence and then fed those numbers into studies projecting future rates.

“What we see is that the [southeast] Louisiana coast averaged three feet of relative sea-level rise the last century,” said NOAA’s Steve Gill.

Prepare for ‘at least 4 feet’ of sea-level rise
The draft report of the quadrennial National Climate Assessment, finished by federal agencies in December, showed a steady increase in sea-level rise through the end of the century. Gill said the increase was due to the continued increase in the two main contributors: thermal expansion of marine water volumes as oceans continue to warm, and an increase in the melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice fields. That water eventually makes its way into the ocean, further increasing its volume.

The assessment provides four scenarios for global average sea-level rise through the end of the century, based on varying scenarios of warming and ice melt:

The first shows current trends holding steady, resulting in about an eight-inch rise globally.
The second, or intermediate increase, results in about 15 inches globally.
The third, or mid-range, shows about 4.5 feet.
The fourth, or worst case, shows about 6.5 feet globally.

The NOAA researchers said they use the mid-range scenario in making local projections.
Southeast Louisiana fares much worse in all four scenarios because “we now know the entire area is sinking faster than any coastal landscape its size on the planet,” Osborne said.

“When you combine those two factors, update the rates from what we’ve found with the most recent data—and that is data, not computer models or theories—then you see this area, southeast Louisiana, will experience the highest rate of sea-level rise anywhere on the planet by the end of the century,” Osborne said.

“We’re talking probably at least four feet if not five feet in some sections of this coast. That’s what people here need to be planning for.”

Editor’s Note: This story was produced in conjunction with The Lens, a nonprofit online newsroom based in New Orleans, http://TheLensNola.org.

YellaBlazer 03-01-2013 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reefman (Post 555145)
We've become our own worst enemy. To say that trout fishing is as good as it was 20 years ago is not facing the reality of fishing success, or lack there of, today. The presure placed on our resources of trout is infinitely higher than it was back then. I beleive that fishing presure has indeed impacted the fisheries. BL looks like a parking lot on weekends with all the boats beatin the waters. T Butte can have over 50 boats in a small area on calm days. Diamond not much better. The rigs out of
vermilion looks like LaFonda; you need a number to wait in line to fish live bait. Cocodrie is overcrowded on any given day.There are far more people fishing today than there were in the 80-90s.

History will repeat itself in trout fishing just as it did in bass fishing. There are too many competing for an over fished and over stressed trout population. Again, only my personal observations fishing trout for over forty years. I do agree that 10% of the fishermen out there do catch the majority of the fish. However there are 20 times better fishermen now than there were 20 years ago.

We are the custodians of our resources today. Every effort should be made to acknowledge what problems face our natural resources and act accordingly. Responsibilities lay with us to protect them. We need factual information by our WLF along with coastal scientific studies specific to trout populations made public. I just can't see our trout fishing taking the pounding it has over the past ten years continue without a colapse in this fisheries. Just MHO.....

I don't disagree that things aren't what they used to be 20 years ago. That's a painful reality. But over on our end, the decline is more environmental than anything. 20 years ago, there were nice, pretty islands dotting the bay. They all held trout. A combination of storms and a choked off river have cost us a lot of essential trout habitat. Big Island, Cat Island, Manilla Village... the list goes on. Trout will not stay in an environment that will not support them.

As far as having 20x better fishermen now, I highly doubt that when the average guy catches less than 10 trout per trip. The same 10% will catch all the fish.

Also, there are no guides over in Lafitte that use live bait. All of the trout are caught on artificial.

Reefman 03-01-2013 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by "W" (Post 555173)
I don't know how good Buras area is year round but I see Matt Caire with loads of 3-5lb trout all the time .

I also know that areas farther east have never been known for large trout like grand isle/ cocodrie and parts of Venice


Trout will spawn at least once before reaching legal size of 12inchs . One thing is for sure. They better have solid hard facts before reducing trout limits , because once they go down , they will never come back up.

Again from a personal point of view. I've seen trout limits go from whatever your boat can hold to 25 and now 15 in BL. The reduction in BL limits have not effected the numbers of fishermen who enjoy fishing the lake. If it is proven that fishing pressure has adversely effected trout populations then a reduction in creel limits is surely called for. I have a hard time understanding why it is so important to some here to have a 25 fish limit. I love to eat trout, however i can't eat 25 to 50 a week!

Dink 03-01-2013 10:35 PM

What gets me pissed is guides that fish everyday and give their limit to their sports.....

Its illegal to do so with red snapper, and it should be for any sport fish

"W" 03-01-2013 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reefman (Post 555185)
Again from a personal point of view. I've seen trout limits go from whatever your boat can hold to 25 and now 15 in BL. The reduction in BL limits have not effected the numbers of fishermen who enjoy fishing the lake. If it is proven that fishing pressure has adversely effected trout populations then a reduction in creel limits is surely called for. I have a hard time understanding why it is so important to some here to have a 25 fish limit. I love to eat trout, however i can't eat 25 to 50 a week!

First let's make one thing clear , Big Lake 15 trout limit had Zero to do with facts, this was 100% politics at its finest . A few rich office fisherman who spend 20 days a year on the water listen to a few other rich guys who have homes on the lake , and said let's make big lake a " Trophy Lake" by cutting limit to 15
Before the 15 trout limit we had 10lb trout getting caught every year of the STAR and it took a 8-9lb trout to win the shootout .
Now 6 years into the trout reduction our over all big trout population had declined due to over population of trout .
Bio. said big lake could support a 30 per person limit

"W" 03-01-2013 10:45 PM

If you want to stop over catching ban live or dead bait ....

Hey Ted 03-01-2013 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montauk17 (Post 555180)
Loss of habitat for the young fish has a huge effect as well....

Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Look at the landscape of southeastern Louisiana today compared to 10 and 20 years ago. Even though there are more fishermen today most of them couldn't catch a limit of trout even if they were fishing on a charter in W's boat. That's also one of the reasons why everything fishing related costs an arm and a leg.

Dink 03-01-2013 10:46 PM

Think maybe more fish are being caught cause of the increase of fisherman so trout dont live long wnough tot get as big?

fishinpox 03-01-2013 10:48 PM

live swimps, 40 lb big game , steel leaderzz, upside down 4000 series spinning gear reeling backwards! rape dat shizzzzzz


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