Conditions at Mars/Ursa and Mensa worsened over the past day with sustained currents in the range of 2-2½ knots and short-lived peaks above 2½ knots reported at ADCP depth. This is due to the fact that the Loop Current has remained parked in lower Mississippi Canyon and has not rotated out of the area as earlier expected. Today’s frontal analysis (below in black) presents a troubling development, with the western half of the Loop Current gaining latitude. This has the potential to significantly extend the presence of the Loop in lower MC. Mars/Ursa and Mensa remain very close to the Loop Current boundary and any dither in the boundary could place operations outside the Loop- or deeper within. For instance, currents at Mars and Deepwater Nautilus have dropped to the 1½ knot range this afternoon, while Ursa and Noble Jim Day are a full knot stronger. Operators are cautioned to monitor currents closely, as they can change quickly. Until there is some positive movement of the Loop to the south and a few miles of separation between the boundary and operations, this episode is not over.
The Loop Current continues to advance on Brutus TLP and will likely bring strong, sustained currents by mid week.
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