[Lreynolds]

It is important to recognize that Aerial Survey and Harvest data are NOT directly comparable. It is quite possible that the harvest data may show we kill more ducks than the aerial survey data show we even have. Some of you made these points in the other thread, but I'll make them here again.

1) Aerial survey data are collected only in select portions of the state, but harvest data are collected from a sample of ALL waterfowl hunters statewide.

So we know that aerial survey UNDER-estimate the actual population size. We also know that because more dedicated hunters are more likely to participate in the harvest surveys than casual hunters, the harvest estimates are likely OVER-estimates. Recent comparisons of the harvest data with banding data suggest the harvest data are overestimated by about 25%, but that is consistent across states and flyways.

2) Aerial survey data are collected during only a short period of time, but harvest data are collected throughout the entire seasons.

Ducks migrate into, out of, and through our state constantly, but the aerial survey is conducted over only 9 total days during November, December, and January. So even in the areas we do survey, our counts are certain to be an UNDER estimate of how many birds were actually using that habitat during the course of the month. But harvest data accounts for hunting activity during the entire time.

3) The value of both aerial and harvest surveys is NOT the actual estimates, but the comparative nature of those data.

By conducting the aerial surveys consistently over time, we get reliable comparisons month-to-month and year-to-year. I don't ever KNOW how many ducks are in the state, but I am pretty confident in whether there are more, less, or about the same as before.

It's the same with harvest data. We can't know exactly how many ducks are actually killed, but by conducting the harvest surveys the same way in every state every year, we can be very confident if it is more, less or about the same year-to-year and between states.