Fisherologists predictions

[Ray]

Look for steady reds but spotty to widely scattered specks early, turning to steady specks and reds by midway in the season with heavy downpours of both species possible late.
In other words, speck fishing might get off to a slow start, but things could be hopping by the end of June, but reds should be biting steady all summer.
"We've just come through an exceptionally cold and long winter, and now we have high rivers, and both of those things are going to have an impact on fishing," said Harry Blanchet, coordinator of coasts fisheries program for the state Department of Wildlife and Fisheries.

"We're likely to see less than average fishing for trout in the spring before things pick up."
In certain areas of coastal Louisiana Blanchet's annual prediction for the summer fishing season is more eagerly awaited than the hurricane forecast. Tropical storms might affect property and lives. This affects fishing.
The anticipation may be greater than normal this spring because of that hard winter Blanchet sighted. State climatologist Barry Keim has judged it the sixth coldest Louisiana winter on record, four long months of extraordinary low temperatures and heavy rains that add up to the worst possible environmental conditions for estuarine species like speckled trout and red fish: Low water temperatures and low salinity levels. Those habitat factors mean fish are less active, making them more susceptible to disease. And when they are active, those conditions mean there is little food around to replenish their natural defenses.
Fortunately, this all happened in Louisiana's coastal estuaries, the most dynamic and productive in the lower 48 states. That means even if this summer turns out to be only average, it will result in fishing that would be considered great anywhere else.

SPECKLED TROUT Prediction: Slow start in the southeast, picking up quickly by late June; fewer 12-inch trout but plenty of 13-18 inchers and the usual small number of trophies over five pounds.
The cold winter undoubtedly took a toll on last summer's spawning class, as well as on one-year-old fish for all the reasons mentioned above, Blanchet said. But six years of warmer-than-usual winters prior to the last one meant we had a large pool of specks coming to start with. So, once fishing conditions improve, most anglers won't notice a difference.
The greater impact on fishing success, Blanchet said, will be those high rivers. The Mississippi isn't expected to crest until the second week of May. That will push plenty of cold, low-salinity water over sections of the Barataria and Pontchartrain-Borgne estuaries.
Because lengthening photo periods (the number of daylight hours in a day) will start prompting specks to look for ideal spawning spots (salinities of at least 15 parts-per-thousands, water temperatures 68 or higher), those plumes of fresh, cold water may well move specks out of spots anglers traditionally find them in May and early June.
"Some trout will stay in less-than-ideal spawning locations, but most will simply move and look for the conditions they prefer," said Blanchet. "I suspect some fishermen will go to their trusty May locations and be disappointed. That just means they'll have to go looking for the fish."
Those cold, fresh conditions in the estuaries probably will also impact the food supply for specks and reds. For example, shrimp grow faster in warm, salty water. So the lack of food supplies in traditional May and early-June spots could also re-located specks.
"I would suspect that the best places to be in May this year will be those that are far away from the mouths of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers," Blanchet said. "I'd think the lower reaches of Terrebonne and Timbalier bays, the islands there, and Calcasieu Lake in southwest Louisiana may have the best trout fishing early."
Anglers that do find specks in late April and May will probably be reeling in fish that are under-weight compared to previous springs, no matter where they fish.
"Before this last one, we had a string of winters that were very mild to non-existent," Blanchet said. "The warmer conditions meant trout remained more active, and because there was a more abundant supply of food, they were able to feed more, and they came out of winter larger and healthier than normal.
"Well, after the winter we just had, the opposite is going to be true. These fish were severely stressed by the winter." That tough winter probably took a toll on the small trout in the population - those under 12 inches- which means we may well see fewer school trout in May and June than is typical. However, the large survival rates of the previous winters means the populations of two, three and four-year old trout will be large.
"Once those rivers go down, the water warms up and the salinity levels rise, fishing should be good, because we have a strong population," Blanchet said. "Then it will come down to being in the right place, at the right time, with the right bait. Just like it always does."

RED FISH Prediction: Good. A big crop of fish 16 to 18 inches, plenty of fish between 18 and 27 inches. Some relocation may occur in areas where high volumes of river water create turbid conditions. Otherwise good fishing the entire summer.
Louisiana's inshore component of red fish remains strong, with an escapement rate of at least 50 percent, well ahead of the mandated 30 percent level, Blanchet said. As local anglers know, the average size of red in our marshes seems to be spiking upward. And this summer we should see plenty of those "perfect eating size" reds.
"The early indications from our sampling data shows we've had a little bounce back in recruitment after a couple of off years," said Blanchet.
Specifically, the 2008 spawning class appears to have had a very high survival rate. That means we should see plenty of reds in the 16 to 18 inch size range. These fish typically stay in the shallower interior marshes, which means great fishing for small boat and light-tackle anglers.
Those newcomers will be joining in a population that emerged little harmed from the severe winter, and remains very large both in total numbers, as well as average weight. Redfish are much hardier than specks, less affected by cold water temperatures, and more tolerant of low salinities.
"I really expected to see some mortality related to the cold, things like fungal infections, but so far that hasn't surfaced," Blanchet said. "Id say we remain in very good shape with reds."