Next Weeks Weather

[Raymond]

Storm Development Outlook
Issued: 04:20 PM CST Tuesday January 04, 2011

Major Arctic Airmass Poised for the Lower 48 Next Week

An Extended Period of Subfreezing Weather Possible Over the Deep South

Hard Freeze Potential Increasing Over the Immediate Gulf Coast from South Texas to North Florida

Powerful Nor-easter Also Possible Next Week

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Discussion:
We continue to gain confidence that a large Arctic Airmass will develop over western Canada this weekend and spill quickly southward over much of the Lower 48 next week bringing below to much below normal temperatures. The leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to make quick progress southward across the Northern Rockies, Central and Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley on Sunday, January 9th, then southward across the Southern Plains, western Gulf and the remainder of the Mississippi Valley on Monday, January 10th. The cold air will then slide eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard and Deep South on Tuesday, January 11th as low pressure quickly intensifies off the North Carolina Coast. Note that strong offshore winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts above 50 mph will be possible behind the cold front from across the western Gulf from the Texas and Louisiana Coasts to the Bay of Campeche late Monday through Wednesday.
Temperature Concerns:
Temperatures will likely drop well below normal behind the Arctic Airmass through the remainder of the next week over most areas east of the Rockies, especially over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley from the Dakotas and Minnesota southward to Texas and Louisiana. Be advised there is now an increasing risk for a hard freeze along the immediate Gulf Coast from south Texas through Mobile Bay as the Arctic Airmass builds over the region. Even though it's a little too early to predict overnight lows this far out, there's some potential that temperatures could fall as low as the low to mid 20s over the immediate coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle sometime during the time period form January 12th through 17th. Just inland from the coast from South Texas to south Georgia temperatures as low as the teens and low 20s will be possible, with the best chance occurring again from the 12th to the 17th. Lows in the single digits and teens are looking increasingly more likely from north Texas and Oklahoma, eastward across northern Mississippi and Alabama to the western Carolinas. Another huge concern over the Deep South are daytime highs which may average only in the 20s and 30s from Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the Carolinas and Florida Panhandle during this same time period.
Here are some forecast temperature graphics over the Deep South for next week:

Snow and Ice Concerns:
As the Arctic Air surges southward next Sunday and Monday low pressure will quickly develop over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley bringing a swath of snow from the Central Plains through the Mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will then spread across the Ohio Valley and Midwest late on the 10th into the morning of the 11th, followed by a track right across much of the Northeast late on the 11th into the 12th as strong low pressure moves up the Atlantic Seaboard. Be advised that snowfall accumulations over much of the Northeast could be very heavy depending on the exact track and intensity of this expected low pressure area. In addition to the snow, north winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts will create widespread areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities across the area making any type of travel very difficult. Be advised that blizzard to near blizzard conditions will be possible over the Northeast centered on the 11th and 12th depending on the exact track of the strong low pressure area. Here is a graphic identifying this winter weather threat from January 9th through 12th.

In the far extended period from January 1 2th through 17th there is some evidence that periods of light overrunning frozen precipitation may build across a large part of the Deep South and Gulf Coast creating very hazardous driving conditions. Even though confidence is low on the timing, duration and intensity of any frozen precipitation, there is increasing evidence supporting this possibility during this time frame. Here is another graphic identifying this winter weather threat from January 12th through the 17th.

The next Storm Development Outlook is forecast to be issued around Noon tomorrow.
Meteorologist: Fred Schmude

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