Weirs Closed

[Cripley]

I have not been on here long enough to see you belittling me as well as calling math geek out that not a time issue I have no problem with what you stand for or my lack of knowledge of what you stand for I am posting my thought and so are you I have not directly belittled your thought only stated my thoughts I want access to be able to shrimp I joined this forum as a means to gain knowledge as well as share thoughts. I didn't know I had to be on here for a time frame before I was entitled to that.

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by Cripley

I have not been on here long enough to see you belittling me as well as calling math geek out that not a time issue I have no problem with what you stand for or my lack of knowledge of what you stand for I am posting my thought and so are you I have not directly belittled your thought only stated my thoughts I want access to be able to shrimp I joined this forum as a means to gain knowledge as well as share thoughts. I didn't know I had to be on here for a time frame before I was entitled to that.

Man, what got your boxers in a bunch? I was never belittling you. All I meant was you were not on here a year ago when just about everyone under the moon was calling what I was saying a lie and calling me a "duckgrass supporter".

Me and MG know each other, we've stood on the same side of many issues, and we've been on opposite sides as well. We are both scientists that value facts over biased opinions with no grounding. I was not "calling him out" as you say, merely pointing out an apparent inconsistency I saw. I may not always agree with him, but I respect what he does, and have even assisted him on some of this research he is talking about.

[outdoorsman]

What did Mother Nature do before placement of weirs? Seams kind of like this global warming crap. Let's scare the sheepeople into thinking what we want them to. In my opinion a weir is sort of like blocking a canal that they want to keep people out of due to big money private water BS.


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[Smalls]

Originally Posted by outdoorsman

What did Mother Nature do before placement of weirs? Seams kind of like this global warming crap. Let's scare the sheepeople into thinking what we want them to. In my opinion a weir is sort of like blocking a canal that they want to keep people out of due to big money private water BS.


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Nothing. The problems behind the weirs are not natural. The dredging of the ship channel introduced saltwater into the system. That marsh could not tolerate the increase in salinity, and it was dying. That is precisely the reason for the weirs.

Removing the weirs would create a temporary increase in shrimp and crab numbers, but inevitably the marsh would die and you would have one large lake.

[Natural Light Kid]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Nothing. The problems behind the weirs are not natural. The dredging of the ship channel introduced saltwater into the system. That marsh could not tolerate the increase in salinity, and it was dying. That is precisely the reason for the weirs.

Removing the weirs would create a temporary increase in shrimp and crab numbers, but inevitably the marsh would die and you would have one large lake.

We've for a winner! That's where I was trying to go. Weirs are a big band aid for the ship channel.

[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Nothing. The problems behind the weirs are not natural. The dredging of the ship channel introduced saltwater into the system. That marsh could not tolerate the increase in salinity, and it was dying. That is precisely the reason for the weirs.

Removing the weirs would create a temporary increase in shrimp and crab numbers, but inevitably the marsh would die and you would have one large lake.

Listen to this right here ^^^^^^^, the ship channel is one of the main culprits for saltwater intrusion, its also the reason there is a year round trout fishery in Big Lake rather than a largemouth bass fishery. The ship channel is the whole reason Lake Charles area is thriving. The weirs are there to mitigate for the ship channel. Its that simple. That area is not supposed to be saltwater, saltwater kills plants that are not salt tolerant.

Over 50 years ago, the saltwater barrier was installed north of Lake Charles, for the reason of keeping saltwater at bay, and had nothing to do with wigeongrass, ducks, CCA, oysters, chupacabras, black panthers, or anything, it was to keep saltwater out of a freshwater system. This was over FIFTY years ago, so its nothing new.

Go to Holly Beach and take a 5 gallon bucket of seawater and pour it in your yard and watch what happens (you won't have to mow that area)

[Natural Light Kid]

Originally Posted by outdoorsman

What did Mother Nature do before placement of weirs? Seams kind of like this global warming crap. Let's scare the sheepeople into thinking what we want them to. In my opinion a weir is sort of like blocking a canal that they want to keep people out of due to big money private water BS.


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Better question would be what did mother nature do before the ship channel? The ship channel does a lot more harm than people are wanting to talk about either because they don't realize it or because it's so vital to SWLA's economy. I'm no scientist and have no scientific data to back this but the need for a "saltwater barrier" in Westlake is a result of the ship channel too. If you could revert things back to before man, I'm sure mother nature could take care of herself, but we are taking about YEARS of man made issues (large and small) that are compounding.

[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by outdoorsman

What did Mother Nature do before placement of weirs? Seams kind of like this global warming crap. Let's scare the sheepeople into thinking what we want them to. In my opinion a weir is sort of like blocking a canal that they want to keep people out of due to big money private water BS.


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You don't have to buy into the manmade global warming, but you need to be aware that the sea levels are rising (due to polar ice caps melting), our land is subsiding (due to numerous things, mainly manmade levees, causing lack of sediment, freshwater, etc.) and saltwater is getting further and further into our marshes and will for the forseeable future, its much bigger than a weir keeping someone from going crabbing or catching some redfish. Much much bigger than that.

The ship channel was dug for the shipping industry in Lake Charles. Without the ship channel, Lake Charles wouldn't be much of anything, it relies on the shipping industry. The saltwater barrier was put in place over 50 years ago to mitigate for this. Weirs were installed later. Its that simple

[Natural Light Kid]

Originally Posted by Duck Butter

You don't have to buy into the manmade global warming, but you need to be aware that the sea levels are rising (due to polar ice caps melting), our land is subsiding (due to numerous things, mainly manmade levees, causing lack of sediment, freshwater, etc.) and saltwater is getting further and further into our marshes and will for the forseeable future, its much bigger than a weir keeping someone from going crabbing or catching some redfish. Much much bigger than that.

The ship channel was dug for the shipping industry in Lake Charles. Without the ship channel, Lake Charles wouldn't be much of anything, it relies on the shipping industry. The saltwater barrier was put in place over 50 years ago to mitigate for this. Weirs were installed later. Its that simple

Very nicely put.

[Cripley]

Smalls I was on here last year when the weirs were closed it was one of the reasons I joined. If I misunderstood you I apologize. I appreciate your opinion and would enjoy continuing to receive information both sides.

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by Cripley

Smalls I was on here last year when the weirs were closed it was one of the reasons I joined. If I misunderstood you I apologize. I appreciate your opinion and would enjoy continuing to receive information both sides.

Hey it's cool man. Things get heated with this topic from time to time. Its the proverbial natural resources management discussion. Something is done that not everyone sees benefit from, or they don't fully understand the purpose, and this is what happens.

Here is a link to a report on some of the projects in that area. The first paragraph is what I keep talking about. Over 60,000 acres of marsh were lost, which does not necessarily mean converted to open water, between 1950 and 1970, which roughly coincides with many of the deeper dredging projects on the Ship channel. That loss is why the weirs were put in.

http://lacoast.gov/reports/project/3891096~1.pdf

[Cripley]

So here the kicker guys I by all means support the ship channel for economic reasons we GOT to have it. So let's here what is the solution I especially would like to hear from the guys who support the weirs.

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by Cripley

So here the kicker guys I by all means support the ship channel for economic reasons we GOT to have it. So let's here what is the solution I especially would like to hear from the guys who support the weirs.

You've got to have some kind of salinity control. Like MG has said, the weirs are one level of control. There is a proposal to install some sort of saltwater barrier at Calcasieu Pass. MG likes the idea of rocks along the length of the channel. Both would work, both face considerable hurdles before they could happen.

You have to have something there to protect that marsh. If you don't, its gone. Multiple levels of salinity control will be the only way to protect the marsh and allow for public uses such as fishing and crabbing to be minimally effected by weir operations.

One thing that no one seems to have considered is why the entire ship channel was not rocked instead of the weirs being installed. Maybe there is a reason they decided on this complex levee and weir system instead of the simple move of rocking the entire channel. I would be curious to know that myself.

[MathGeek]

Smalls, I agree there are challenges when assigning importance to competing hypotheses when multiple factors are in play. We've developed new analysis techniques (based on multivariate analysis techniques in other fields) that are effective in unravelling food web dynamics of complex ecosystems given sufficient years of data. With a decade of data, inferences are possible with greater statistical confidence than possible now. If hypothetical causes are relatively uncorrelated, confident inferences may result from only 5-7 years of data. Empirical methods to estimate interaction matrix elements in the coupled Lotka-Volterra equations are something of a holy grail in population modeling. Our analysis approach shows promise toward accurately estimating species interaction coefficients (matrix elements) as well as making inferences regarding competing hypotheses in food web dynamics.

For example, suppose current trends hold for a decade (they might not). If the mean annual relative condition factors of a given length class of a given species (say bull redfish > 800 mm) have a strong correlation (r > 0.8; P < 0.05) with oyster stock assessments, but relatively weak correlations with other hypothetical factors (r < 0.5; P > 0.2), then there would be greater statistical confidence that oyster reef condition plays the strongest role in bull redfish condition. Likewise, suppose a different length class/species combination (say redfish 400-500 mm TL) is most strongly correlated with the exchange between the marsh and lake (r > 0.7; P < 0.05), but only weakly correlated with other factors (r < 0.5; P > 0.2); one could confidently infer that weir operation has a strong role. Finally, suppose that the shortest sampled length class of specks (290-400mm TL) is most strongly correlated with exchange between marsh and lake (r > 0.8; P < 0.05), weakly correlated with population of speckled trout (r > 0.5; P < 0.05), and uncorrelated with other factors. This would suggest a rank ordering of weir operation (lake-marsh exchange) then speck overpopulation (limits) above other hypotheses regarding the relative condition factor of specks 12-16" TL.

Right now, there are three years of data, and we'll have a fourth year by the end of June. More can be said than with one or two years of data, but less than possible with a decade of data. For example, if the speck limit were a dominant factor in the lake's food web impacting redfish and drum and gafftops as well as specks, one would expect that the condition factor of specks (especially the shorter length classes, since they have the highest populations) would be more strongly reduced than the relative condition factors of redfish. This is because the food competition is stronger within a given species than with other species. One would also expect Kn of different length classes and species to be highly correlated with each other, since the underlying cause would be the same. However, that is not what we see. The Kn of shorter specks has been between 0.95 and 1.05 in all sampling years (2011, 2012, and 2013); whereas, the Kn of redfish in the 500-650mm length class (that tend to stack up strongly at the weirs) has dipped below 0.95. Weir operation seems to be having a bigger impact on redfish between 20-26" long than the change in the speck limit. This seems more likely than not with available data , but cannot be inferred with a 90% or 95% confidence level. With a decade of data, this apparent inference might wash out in the noise or it might be established with greater confidence.

Another factor to consider is that Kn for all length classes and species (except for Gaftops 450-550 mm TL and bull redfish) rebounded strongly in 2013 over 2012. Only the shorter length classes of specks and redfish 400-500 mm TL topped 1.0 (returned to normal). Most length classes and years had Kn increase by about 5%, whereas specks (combined lengths) had a Kn increase of 9% (+/- 1.5%). This rebound cannot be explained by a recovery of the oyster reefs. However, the rebound does coincide with much lower salinity levels in the lake for the first six months of 2013 (compared with 2011 and 2012) that allowed the weirs to be opened and bait to flow back and forth from the marsh and lake. Based on available data, it seems more likely than not that the exchange with the marsh plays a significant role in relative condition factors in these cases. Once again, this inference might wash out in the noise with a decade of data, or it might be established with greater confidence.

Salinity levels have been a bit in 2014 than in the same period in 2013, but lower than 2011 and 2012; however the weirs have hardly been opened so exchange with the marsh has been small. If we had LDWF's 2014 oyster stock assessment data (not available yet), we could weight the different factors and make some Kn predictions for each length class and species based on past years and our current understanding of the relative importance of each factor. If the 2014 oyster stock assessments are still down, I expect Kn's closer to what was measured in 2012 than in 2013.

Louisiana law mandates wildlife resources be managed with the "best available" science. My issues with the speck and tripletail limits is that CCA pushed for more restrictive regulations with no data at all. Available data was not reviewed; there were no hints of stock assessments; existing data from trawl studies and LDWF's fishery independent surveys was not consulted. In contrast, oyster stock assessments and the best available fisheries dependent data for Big Lake both suggest that oyster dredging is doing real and lasting harm. Volumes of published scholarly papers document valuable ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs, additional annual fisheries production around restored reefs, and the negative consequences on estuaries from the destruction of oyster reefs.

It is sad to think that a humble relative condition factor study may constitute the "best available" data on the state of the fishery in Calcasieu Estuary, but until LDWF and CCA improve their scientific committment, this may be the situation. Air Force support for the project dried up about the time of the sequester and furlough, right before I left the Academy and moved back to Louisiana. The study moves forward on a bit of private funding, exiting equipment, many volunteer hours, and kindness of those who let us weigh and measure their fish. Will we manage to get hundreds of fish weighed and measured in a three week window every year from now until 2021? I don't know.

[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by MathGeek

Smalls, I agree there are challenges when assigning importance to competing hypotheses when multiple factors are in play. We've developed new analysis techniques (based on multivariate analysis techniques in other fields) that are effective in unravelling food web dynamics of complex ecosystems given sufficient years of data. With a decade of data, inferences are possible with greater statistical confidence than possible now. If hypothetical causes are relatively uncorrelated, confident inferences may result from only 5-7 years of data. Empirical methods to estimate interaction matrix elements in the coupled Lotka-Volterra equations are something of a holy grail in population modeling. Our analysis approach shows promise toward accurately estimating species interaction coefficients (matrix elements) as well as making inferences regarding competing hypotheses in food web dynamics.

For example, suppose current trends hold for a decade (they might not). If the mean annual relative condition factors of a given length class of a given species (say bull redfish > 800 mm) have a strong correlation (r > 0.8; P < 0.05) with oyster stock assessments, but relatively weak correlations with other hypothetical factors (r < 0.5; P > 0.2), then there would be greater statistical confidence that oyster reef condition plays the strongest role in bull redfish condition. Likewise, suppose a different length class/species combination (say redfish 400-500 mm TL) is most strongly correlated with the exchange between the marsh and lake (r > 0.7; P < 0.05), but only weakly correlated with other factors (r < 0.5; P > 0.2); one could confidently infer that weir operation has a strong role. Finally, suppose that the shortest sampled length class of specks (290-400mm TL) is most strongly correlated with exchange between marsh and lake (r > 0.8; P < 0.05), weakly correlated with population of speckled trout (r > 0.5; P < 0.05), and uncorrelated with other factors. This would suggest a rank ordering of weir operation (lake-marsh exchange) then speck overpopulation (limits) above other hypotheses regarding the relative condition factor of specks 12-16" TL.

Right now, there are three years of data, and we'll have a fourth year by the end of June. More can be said than with one or two years of data, but less than possible with a decade of data. For example, if the speck limit were a dominant factor in the lake's food web impacting redfish and drum and gafftops as well as specks, one would expect that the condition factor of specks (especially the shorter length classes, since they have the highest populations) would be more strongly reduced than the relative condition factors of redfish. This is because the food competition is stronger within a given species than with other species. One would also expect Kn of different length classes and species to be highly correlated with each other, since the underlying cause would be the same. However, that is not what we see. The Kn of shorter specks has been between 0.95 and 1.05 in all sampling years (2011, 2012, and 2013); whereas, the Kn of redfish in the 500-650mm length class (that tend to stack up strongly at the weirs) has dipped below 0.95. Weir operation seems to be having a bigger impact on redfish between 20-26" long than the change in the speck limit. This seems more likely than not with available data , but cannot be inferred with a 90% or 95% confidence level. With a decade of data, this apparent inference might wash out in the noise or it might be established with greater confidence.

Another factor to consider is that Kn for all length classes and species (except for Gaftops 450-550 mm TL and bull redfish) rebounded strongly in 2013 over 2012. Only the shorter length classes of specks and redfish 400-500 mm TL topped 1.0 (returned to normal). Most length classes and years had Kn increase by about 5%, whereas specks (combined lengths) had a Kn increase of 9% (+/- 1.5%). This rebound cannot be explained by a recovery of the oyster reefs. However, the rebound does coincide with much lower salinity levels in the lake for the first six months of 2013 (compared with 2011 and 2012) that allowed the weirs to be opened and bait to flow back and forth from the marsh and lake. Based on available data, it seems more likely than not that the exchange with the marsh plays a significant role in relative condition factors in these cases. Once again, this inference might wash out in the noise with a decade of data, or it might be established with greater confidence.

Salinity levels have been a bit in 2014 than in the same period in 2013, but lower than 2011 and 2012; however the weirs have hardly been opened so exchange with the marsh has been small. If we had LDWF's 2014 oyster stock assessment data (not available yet), we could weight the different factors and make some Kn predictions for each length class and species based on past years and our current understanding of the relative importance of each factor. If the 2014 oyster stock assessments are still down, I expect Kn's closer to what was measured in 2012 than in 2013.

Louisiana law mandates wildlife resources be managed with the "best available" science. My issues with the speck and tripletail limits is that CCA pushed for more restrictive regulations with no data at all. Available data was not reviewed; there were no hints of stock assessments; existing data from trawl studies and LDWF's fishery independent surveys was not consulted. In contrast, oyster stock assessments and the best available fisheries dependent data for Big Lake both suggest that oyster dredging is doing real and lasting harm. Volumes of published scholarly papers document valuable ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs, additional annual fisheries production around restored reefs, and the negative consequences on estuaries from the destruction of oyster reefs.

It is sad to think that a humble relative condition factor study may constitute the "best available" data on the state of the fishery in Calcasieu Estuary, but until LDWF and CCA improve their scientific committment, this may be the situation. Air Force support for the project dried up about the time of the sequester and furlough, right before I left the Academy and moved back to Louisiana. The study moves forward on a bit of private funding, exiting equipment, many volunteer hours, and kindness of those who let us weigh and measure their fish. Will we manage to get hundreds of fish weighed and measured in a three week window every year from now until 2021? I don't know.

MG, need a link to that 2000 USGS study you keep quoting please

[DA COVE]

If man would leave most things alone, NATURE would take care of itself. We can help, but we'll never control it..

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by DA COVE

If man would leave most things alone, NATURE would take care of itself. We can help, but we'll never control it..

So what is nature to do when it can't take care of itself because of human alterations? The problems in the cameron-creole are directly linked to the saltwater intrusion caused by the Calcasieu Ship Channel. The vegetation was dying so rapidly that there was nothing to take its place.

[DA COVE]

Originally Posted by Smalls

So what is nature to do when it can't take care of itself because of human alterations? The problems in the cameron-creole are directly linked to the saltwater intrusion caused by the Calcasieu Ship Channel. The vegetation was dying so rapidly that there was nothing to take its place.

And with it's continued human alteration and the increase in shipping traffic in the near future, it's pretty fuch screwed.

[mallardhead]

Originally Posted by DA COVE

If man would leave most things alone, NATURE would take care of itself. We can help, but we'll never control it..

Amen

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[Natural Light Kid]

I've heard old timers talk about how back in the day before the channel they would sometimes catch tarpon in Prien and other times they caught bass. wish I were around when it was a natural estuary.