Gulf of Mexico disturbance a threat to develop

[biglaketiger]

I know we need the rain BUT dang, did it have to come in on a holiday weekend!

This is from underground weather forcast:

Surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico are rising today in advance of the approach of a tropical wave currently over the Western Caribbean, western tip of Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This wave is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The wave is slowly beginning to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms, and this process will accelerate on Thursday when the wave enters the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, when the wave will be near the Louisiana or Texas coast, wind shear is expected to drop to low to moderate levels, and the wave may be able to organize into a tropical depression. This process will likely take several days, and formation of a tropical depression is more likely Saturday or Sunday. NHC is giving the wave just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Regardless, this system will spread heavy rains to portions of the Gulf Coast by Friday, with the Upper Texas coast and the coast of Louisiana the most likely recipients of heavy rain. Strong onshore winds raising tides to 1 - 2 feet above normal are likely over Louisiana beginning on Friday, and coastal flood statements have been issued for the region. Three of our four top models for predicting tropical cyclone development forecast that a tropical depression will form this weekend or early next week, and I think it is at least 50% likely we will have Tropical Depression 13 on our hands by Monday. However, steering currents will be weak in the Gulf, and it is difficult to predict where the storm might go.The GFS model has a possible tropical depression forming by Sunday off the coast of Mississippi, then moving east-northeast over the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The ECMWF model forms the storm on Monday off the coast of Texas, and leaves the storm stalled out there through Wednesday. The UKMET model forms the storm Saturday off the coast of Louisiana, and leaves it stalled out there through Monday. If the storm did remain in the Gulf of Mexico for three days as some of the recent model runs have been predicting, it would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane.

[Montauk17]

Part of living on the coast! Hope it rains hard at the deer lease in north la!

[DUCKGOGETTER]

Of course right before teal season to get them real good and scattered

[Ray]

We are evacuating some non-essentials today. Will start shuffling a bunch to the beach tomorrow and preparing to shut in after we see about where it will be heading.
Different weather people are saying different directions.

[jchief]

Well Ray, you were wrong about the weather.






This time

[DUCKGOGETTER]

Originally Posted by ray

we are evacuating some non-essentials today. Will start shuffling a bunch to the beach tomorrow and preparing to shut in after we see about where it will be heading.
Different weather people are saying different directions.

i sure hope so

["W"]

And we are suppose to come back on Line Sun after being shut in for 7 months.....

[Ray]

Originally Posted by jchief

Well Ray, you were wrong about the weather.






This time

Yep.

[jdm4x43732]

Headed in tomorrow AM. After the last few storms with Platforms falling over, I'd rather not ride out anything out here tropical storm , depression, hurricane. About right though weather will suck my week off......

["W"]

This is a typical weekend before Teal Season...it seems like ever year we are bone dry and we have 2million teal in our Rice fields....them we get 40inchs of rain and spreads them out..... About 9 years ago...my dad was limiting out in or pasture that was flooded with rain water

[all star rod]

As dry as things are, it will take a lot of rain for all these dry fields to hold at least 6" of water. our lease needs at least 10" of rain. Hope we get it.

[DUCKGOGETTER]

Originally Posted by "w"

this is a typical weekend before teal season...it seems like ever year we are bone dry and we have 2million teal in our rice fields....them we get 40inchs of rain and spreads them out..... About 9 years ago...my dad was limiting out in or pasture that was flooded with rain water

x2! We gonna go from no water to too much water before teal season

[inchspinner]

Im gonna go catch some fishes regardless of the RAIN unless its a darn blown out stormmm....Im hungry and mad at the fishes.

[huntin fool]

My spots are all tidal, however I do need rain for deer lease ponds for the greenwings mallards and woodies

[inchspinner]

I cant wait till duck season, Ill have the whole LAKE to myself, "W" wont even be out there....vac. is coming soon and yall be hunting and Ill be fishing....Might make a duck trip in there once or so....NO POTLICKERS COMING SOON..lol.

[Ray]

That storm will suck the water out of Big Lake and the tidal marshes if it heads to SE La. like the models show.

[Super Spook]

Hopefully we have so many teal it won't matter what this does, but we sure could use a bunch of rain at our place and my buddies place in Woodworth. I hope it dumps hard!

[Dink]

Lovin marsh huntin!

They just showed the storm on whether channel.....doesn't look good!!

[Dink]

Forecast models have it doing loops in the gulf well into next week.....never seen that before

[inchspinner]

Whos gettn affected this weekend, or is gonna hover in the gulf all weekend...