Statistics question

[Duck Butter]

Putting out trail cameras (well hidden) to catch trespassers entering property (all daylight, no flash goes off) and the issue of how often to check the cameras came up. The cameras went up Thursday and we think these folks are entering at least once a day.

Person A says that the cameras should be checked as soon as possible because the chance of them being seen goes up every day.

Person B says that it doesn't matter if they are there 1 day or 20 days the odds of it being encountered does not go up, the odds stay the same everyday.

Which one is right?

[Chip Landry]

Why wouldn't you check it every day to nip this problem, if it is a problem, in the butt ASAP?

[AubreyLaHaye458]

I can ask my statistics teacher tomorrow if you want. lol But I would say check it sooner rather than later. Because IMHO, the chance of it being seen goes up each time they pass.


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[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by Chip Landry

Why wouldn't you check it every day to nip this problem, if it is a problem, in the butt ASAP?

its work related but can't check it everyday as it takes too much time out my schedule as its in a remote location. Checking it now but can't get back there again til at least next week.

Caught the guy last year. Put up two cameras, one was stolen but got him with the second. 2nd time we have caught him. Was on probation for a year, now its over so I think he will continue. Guy claims he is a 'sovereign citizen' and there is no such thing as private land, its all our land I wish I was kidding He calls me occasionally to express his feelings

[Chip Landry]

Originally Posted by Duck Butter

its work related but can't check it everyday as it takes too much time out my schedule as its in a remote location. Checking it now but can't get back there again til at least next week.

Caught the guy last year. Put up two cameras, one was stolen but got him with the second. 2nd time we have caught him. Was on probation for a year, now its over so I think he will continue. Guy claims he is a 'sovereign citizen' and there is no such thing as private land, its all our land I wish I was kidding He calls me occasionally to express his feelings

Oh it's one of those locals around the deer lease guys... Good luck with that... Maybe since he's a "sovereign citizen" go one day and camp out with an AR and if you see him "make the dirt fly" around his feet...

[Reggoh]

Statistically speaking, I would have to say that this situation is not mutually exclusive like a coin flip. (no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip is still only 50/50)

This situation changes with each time the person enters the area. Some things can become conditioned (taken for granted because it's always the same) like walking in your house at night without the lights on... you know where the furniture is. But every time that person enters the area he has an increased chance of being alerted to the camera or something catching his eye.

You also have to remember that every time you enter the area to check the camera you increase the chances of changing something that could alert the thief to your presence. Check it in irregular intervals.

[kb7722]

I might would move it every time I checked it. Something to think about.

[Duck Butter]

I think MG has me on his ignore list but anyways


Not who I am looking for but this guy is 2 miles from a vehicle in flip flops, the snakes are one thing but the entire trail he is on is full of poison ivy. Which one of you hippies is this?

[barbarian]

If everyday is like a coin flip (totally independent of the previous flip and previous day), then statistically speaking the odds are the same every day. If you know he trespasses 1 day every month, then the odds would increase as each day passes.

I remember arguing with my college statistics teacher about the coin flip until we both got tired. LOL. I understand the odds stay 50% on every flip, but I also understand that in theory 1 out of 2 should equal close to 500 out of 1000. So if it lands heads 40 times in a row, it has to catch up sooner or later - statistically speaking

[Chip Landry]

Yea he looks like half of the thousands of people at the festival this weekend.. Don't want it to sound like a smart zzz question, but besides trespassing, what harm is he doing? Is he stealing thing, damaging property, stands or feeders?

[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by Chip Landry

Yea he looks like half of the thousands of people at the festival this weekend.. Don't want it to sound like a smart zzz question, but besides trespassing, what harm is he doing? Is he stealing thing, damaging property, stands or feeders?

The area is a waterbird nesting area and the birds leave the nest when disturbed and will (and have in the past) abandon the area completely due to people getting too close.

[Matt G]

Looks like an interesting fella.

[Chip Landry]

Originally Posted by Duck Butter

The area is a waterbird nesting area and the birds leave the nest when disturbed and will (and have in the past) abandon the area completely due to people getting too close.

10-4.. Well good luck with your hippy problem..

[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by Chip Landry

10-4.. Well good luck with your hippy problem..

yeah that dude isn't hurting anything, I bet his ankles were itching like crazy though