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Finfeatherfur · #1 06-19-2012, 02:52 PM

Disturbance 11 Advisory #10[SIZE=3] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Valid: 02:00 PM CDT Tuesday June 19, 2012 [/SIZE]

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[SIZE=3]Current Position: [/SIZE][SIZE=3]18.2N 83.5W
Geographic Reference: 235 NM east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico
Movement: Northwest near 10 kts
Organizational Trend: Unchanged
Chance of Development Within the Next 48 Hours: 20 percent
Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 50 percent [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Changes from the Previous Forecast [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]We have changed the track northeastward. The alternate scenario that we pointed out previously is now considered the more likely scenario. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Our Forecast [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Disturbance 11 is moving to the northwest. The forecast track takes the system across the northern Yucatan Peninsula or through the Yucatan Channel late tonight and Wednesday on a northwest course. The disturbance should be near the central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. After that point, the track is highly uncertain. There is a good chance that the system will stall over the northern Gulf for a day or two before continuing generally northward moving inland on Saturday. This track will place the system in either the northern Gulf of Mexico or inland along the north Gulf Coast by Saturday. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]The disturbance is poorly organized and environmental conditions are unfavorable for development at this time. Therefore, there is only a slight chance of development during the next 48 hours. However, since environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for development once the system is in the Gulf, the chance of development is higher. There remains a 50 percent chance that the system will eventually become a tropical depression or a tropical storm. However, there remains little indication that the system could become a hurricane. The chances of the system intensifying into a hurricane are estimated at 5 percent. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Indications are that this system will be a broad low rather than a compact classical tropical cyclone. This low will spread squalls over a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Even if development does not occur, winds of 20 to 25 kts with gusts of 30 to 35 kts should be expected over a large area of the Gulf from the northeastern Gulf to the northwestern Gulf. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Expected Impacts to Land [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Yucatan: Disturbance 11 is expected to bring showers and storms to the area today and Wednesday.
Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Florida Panhandle coasts : Squalls could reach the coast by Thursday night.
Texas: If a northwest track were to occur, squalls would reach Texas by Saturday. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Expected Impacts to the Gulf of Mexico [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Squalls from the disturbance are likely to affect south-central Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts are possible within the squalls. By Thursday, squalls are likely to reach the north Gulf Coast. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 kts are possible in the northern Gulf. By Friday, highest possible gusts in the northern Gulf could reach 45 to 48 kts. These gusts could continue into Saturday. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]The next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Meteorologist: Andrew Hagen [/SIZE]
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Lat.

Lon.

Max Sustained Winds

Category

18.20N
83.50W

25 kts

Tropical Disturbance

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