McNeese Ducks Unlimited

[noodle creek]

December aerial survey estimate 2012 shows less ducks in LA than what the list says we harvested.
December aerial survey estimate 2013 shows less ducks in LA than what the list says we harvested.

Everyone on here that thinks we killed 2.7 million birds in 2012 and 2.3 million birds in 2013 shouls not be allowed to comment on this thread any more.

It's mind boggling that the USFW service would even publish such a list, but it's not mind boggling that all these DU supporters actually believe it.

[Top Dawg]

Originally Posted by noodle creek

December aerial survey estimate 2012 shows less ducks in LA than what the list says we harvested.
December aerial survey estimate 2013 shows less ducks in LA than what the list says we harvested.

Everyone on here that thinks we killed 2.7 million birds in 2012 and 2.3 million birds in 2013 shouls not be allowed to comment on this thread any more.

It's mind boggling that the USFW service would even publish such a list, but it's not mind boggling that all these DU supporters actually believe it.

It really is hilarious that people actually believe this malarkey the gvmt puts out and calls it "data" ha! I can tell u the outfit I went to canada with this year hunts 6 days a week sept-oct and in 3 days we killed more birds than we will hunting 30 days here. Like u said. Limits are higher and almost guaranteed. And nope. Not one survey or kill for did I have to fill out. We were second week in camp and they were already well over 1k birds. It's also hilarious that they have the survey numbers there next to the "kill" numbers and ppl believe we actually kill more ducks than what are here haha.

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by noodle creek

December aerial survey estimate 2012 shows less ducks in LA than what the list says we harvested.
December aerial survey estimate 2013 shows less ducks in LA than what the list says we harvested.

Everyone on here that thinks we killed 2.7 million birds in 2012 and 2.3 million birds in 2013 shouls not be allowed to comment on this thread any more.

It's mind boggling that the USFW service would even publish such a list, but it's not mind boggling that all these DU supporters actually believe it.

Define "all", because I'm a DU supporter, and definitely never posted to the effect of believing that.

All of those estimates are based on HIP. Apparently no one here realizes that HIP stands for HARVEST INFORMATION PROGRAM. So yes, you do fill out a harvest report....it happens every year you buy a license. That would include anyone that hunted from out of state. I can't remember, but does HIP request information on the number of birds you killed in the particular state? Or in general? That could skew numbers easily if someone is just counting all of their birds. Another factor could be inaccurate reporting. You all know there are plenty of guys that will not tell the truth, and it wouldn't surprise me if there are those out there that would report idiotic numbers as opposed to zeros.

Then there is the information reported. Does anyone even pay attention to the fact that the standard deviation is 21% for the total duck harvest in 2013? That is pretty high. That means you could potentially knock over 450k off of that number. Of course, it could go the other way as well. those numbers are based on the total number of hunters and the seasonal harvest per hunter. I don't find it that hard to believe that 77,600 hunters averaged 31 birds a season. I mean, if every guy went out and killed a limit for 5 days, there is 30 birds right there.

Obviously, you have those guys that hunt close to 60 days a season, and probably limit nearly every day. That is 360 birds if you limit every day, and would equal the total kills for him plus 11 other hunters, based on those numbers. You've got guys that range all over in there between 0 and 360.

So, while those numbers seem high, with that information, it doesn't seem implausible. It is an estimate, not a hard number. Do I take them as hard fact and credit that do DU? No and No. Does DU deserve some credit for the work they do up north? Absolutely. They are putting in work on the PPR, just like Delta and USFWS. If they weren't working up there to protect those grasslands, there wouldn't be any ducks. Just like most of the midwest, those grasslands would have been converted to some sort of agricultural production, which would have degraded the habitat. But with those organizations and agencies working up there, there is at least some balance between agriculture and conservation.

Now, the real question is, does anyone actually believe that the total national harvest was actually 30% of all the ducks in the total estimated population in 2012?

Estimated Duck Population in 2012: 48.6 million
Estimated Harvest for 2012 (United States): 15.7 million
Percent of Population Harvested in 2012: 32%

[noodle creek]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Define "all", because I'm a DU supporter, and definitely never posted to the effect of believing that.

All of those estimates are based on HIP. Apparently no one here realizes that HIP stands for HARVEST INFORMATION PROGRAM. So yes, you do fill out a harvest report....it happens every year you buy a license. That would include anyone that hunted from out of state. I can't remember, but does HIP request information on the number of birds you killed in the particular state? Or in general? That could skew numbers easily if someone is just counting all of their birds. Another factor could be inaccurate reporting. You all know there are plenty of guys that will not tell the truth, and it wouldn't surprise me if there are those out there that would report idiotic numbers as opposed to zeros.

Then there is the information reported. Does anyone even pay attention to the fact that the standard deviation is 21% for the total duck harvest in 2013? That is pretty high. That means you could potentially knock over 450k off of that number. Of course, it could go the other way as well. those numbers are based on the total number of hunters and the seasonal harvest per hunter. I don't find it that hard to believe that 77,600 hunters averaged 31 birds a season. I mean, if every guy went out and killed a limit for 5 days, there is 30 birds right there.

Obviously, you have those guys that hunt close to 60 days a season, and probably limit nearly every day. That is 360 birds if you limit every day, and would equal the total kills for him plus 11 other hunters, based on those numbers. You've got guys that range all over in there between 0 and 360.

So, while those numbers seem high, with that information, it doesn't seem implausible. It is an estimate, not a hard number. Do I take them as hard fact and credit that do DU? No and No. Does DU deserve some credit for the work they do up north? Absolutely. They are putting in work on the PPR, just like Delta and USFWS. If they weren't working up there to protect those grasslands, there wouldn't be any ducks. Just like most of the midwest, those grasslands would have been converted to some sort of agricultural production, which would have degraded the habitat. But with those organizations and agencies working up there, there is at least some balance between agriculture and conservation.

Now, the real question is, does anyone actually believe that the total national harvest was actually 30% of all the ducks in the total estimated population in 2012?

Estimated Duck Population in 2012: 48.6 million
Estimated Harvest for 2012 (United States): 15.7 million
Percent of Population Harvested in 2012: 32%

I'm not really a DU hater, and any money that goes to breeding grounds and prairie pothole region is fine by me. However, I think DU has slowly gotten away from the true conservation organization it used to be.

As far as surveys, I understand how the HiP program works. I said that I have never been asked individual species. I also said that I don't know anyone who has been asked about the number of birds harvested in Canada.

[noodle creek]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Define "all", because I'm a DU supporter, and definitely never posted to the effect of believing that.

All of those estimates are based on HIP. Apparently no one here realizes that HIP stands for HARVEST INFORMATION PROGRAM. So yes, you do fill out a harvest report....it happens every year you buy a license. That would include anyone that hunted from out of state. I can't remember, but does HIP request information on the number of birds you killed in the particular state? Or in general? That could skew numbers easily if someone is just counting all of their birds. Another factor could be inaccurate reporting. You all know there are plenty of guys that will not tell the truth, and it wouldn't surprise me if there are those out there that would report idiotic numbers as opposed to zeros.

Then there is the information reported. Does anyone even pay attention to the fact that the standard deviation is 21% for the total duck harvest in 2013? That is pretty high. That means you could potentially knock over 450k off of that number. Of course, it could go the other way as well. those numbers are based on the total number of hunters and the seasonal harvest per hunter. I don't find it that hard to believe that 77,600 hunters averaged 31 birds a season. I mean, if every guy went out and killed a limit for 5 days, there is 30 birds right there.

Obviously, you have those guys that hunt close to 60 days a season, and probably limit nearly every day. That is 360 birds if you limit every day, and would equal the total kills for him plus 11 other hunters, based on those numbers. You've got guys that range all over in there between 0 and 360.

So, while those numbers seem high, with that information, it doesn't seem implausible. It is an estimate, not a hard number. Do I take them as hard fact and credit that do DU? No and No. Does DU deserve some credit for the work they do up north? Absolutely. They are putting in work on the PPR, just like Delta and USFWS. If they weren't working up there to protect those grasslands, there wouldn't be any ducks. Just like most of the midwest, those grasslands would have been converted to some sort of agricultural production, which would have degraded the habitat. But with those organizations and agencies working up there, there is at least some balance between agriculture and conservation.

Now, the real question is, does anyone actually believe that the total national harvest was actually 30% of all the ducks in the total estimated population in 2012?

Estimated Duck Population in 2012: 48.6 million
Estimated Harvest for 2012 (United States): 15.7 million
Percent of Population Harvested in 2012: 32%

Also, of those 77,600 hunters, I'm sure a large number of these people hunted once or twice.

There aren't but a handful of guys that hunt 60 days a kill limits every day.

On the HIP, i'm sure there are plenty of facepainters giving blind totals, and not individual totals.

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by noodle creek

I'm not really a DU hater, and any money that goes to breeding grounds and prairie pothole region is fine by me. However, I think DU has slowly gotten away from the true conservation organization it used to be.

As far as surveys, I understand how the HiP program works. I said that I have never been asked individual species. I also said that I don't know anyone who has been asked about the number of birds harvested in Canada.

As is often the case with my comments, they are all encompassing. Some of those were not directed at you. This is not the first time I have seen people question where those numbers come from, and it clearly states they come from the HIP.

I also have never been asked how many of each species, so I agree with you there. Those numbers are being estimated based on hunter responses from surveys and the number of hunters who filled out a HIP. So, they select X number of hunters, send them a diary, and the hunter records the number of each species he kills throughout the season. They then extrapolate that out to the total hunters.

The fact of the matter is, those harvest numbers don't really play into any of the regulations, as I understand it. You don't set a limit based on what was done the previous year. You set it based on the population trends. I don't even know why anyone concerns themselves with the harvest data. It's a talking point as far as I'm concerned. The reason the limit in teal season went up to 6 and the reason we could have gone up to 3 specks was due to increases in the population.

Originally Posted by noodle creek

Also, of those 77,600 hunters, I'm sure a large number of these people hunted once or twice.

There aren't but a handful of guys that hunt 60 days a kill limits every day.

On the HIP, i'm sure there are plenty of facepainters giving blind totals, and not individual totals.

Precisely my point. Inaccurate survey numbers. If 3 guys hunt 10 days, and they kill 60 ducks between them, each one of them may very well report 60 ducks. When 3 guys are reporting 180 ducks, when in reality only 60 were killed, that skews the data and makes the harvest larger. The question is whether those hunters chosen for this survey are doing that. They may be. Who goes out on a hunt with his buddies, and reports that he killed a limit? No one. It's always "we killed a 3 man limit". You would think it would be clear that you are only reporting the ducks you killed, but some people ain't that bright.

I've always thought the "facepainters" knock was hilarious. I mean, didn't that craze start because of a show based on one of the most hardcore duck hunting families in the world? I bet 90% of people would never even think of calling Phil or Jace a facepainter to their face, but they sure as hell use the stuff.

[cgoods17]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Define "all", because I'm a DU supporter, and definitely never posted to the effect of believing that.

All of those estimates are based on HIP. Apparently no one here realizes that HIP stands for HARVEST INFORMATION PROGRAM. So yes, you do fill out a harvest report....it happens every year you buy a license. That would include anyone that hunted from out of state. I can't remember, but does HIP request information on the number of birds you killed in the particular state? Or in general? That could skew numbers easily if someone is just counting all of their birds. Another factor could be inaccurate reporting. You all know there are plenty of guys that will not tell the truth, and it wouldn't surprise me if there are those out there that would report idiotic numbers as opposed to zeros.

Then there is the information reported. Does anyone even pay attention to the fact that the standard deviation is 21% for the total duck harvest in 2013? That is pretty high. That means you could potentially knock over 450k off of that number. Of course, it could go the other way as well. those numbers are based on the total number of hunters and the seasonal harvest per hunter. I don't find it that hard to believe that 77,600 hunters averaged 31 birds a season. I mean, if every guy went out and killed a limit for 5 days, there is 30 birds right there.

Obviously, you have those guys that hunt close to 60 days a season, and probably limit nearly every day. That is 360 birds if you limit every day, and would equal the total kills for him plus 11 other hunters, based on those numbers. You've got guys that range all over in there between 0 and 360.

So, while those numbers seem high, with that information, it doesn't seem implausible. It is an estimate, not a hard number. Do I take them as hard fact and credit that do DU? No and No. Does DU deserve some credit for the work they do up north? Absolutely. They are putting in work on the PPR, just like Delta and USFWS. If they weren't working up there to protect those grasslands, there wouldn't be any ducks. Just like most of the midwest, those grasslands would have been converted to some sort of agricultural production, which would have degraded the habitat. But with those organizations and agencies working up there, there is at least some balance between agriculture and conservation.

Now, the real question is, does anyone actually believe that the total national harvest was actually 30% of all the ducks in the total estimated population in 2012?

Estimated Duck Population in 2012: 48.6 million
Estimated Harvest for 2012 (United States): 15.7 million
Percent of Population Harvested in 2012: 32%

the HIP information is a joke. the little girl at the counter probably has asked me these questions maybe every other year, if that. and im sure you got guys that go up to the counter and make up numbers to make them look "hardcore" since they are wearing all of there DU hats and shirts.

i will go out on a limb and say that these harvest numbers are bogus.

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by cgoods17

the HIP information is a joke. the little girl at the counter probably has asked me these questions maybe every other year, if that. and im sure you got guys that go up to the counter and make up numbers to make them look "hardcore" since they are wearing all of there DU hats and shirts.

i will go out on a limb and say that these harvest numbers are bogus.

Yeah, cause Joe Blow that isn't a DU member wouldn't do this. Come on, man.

[cgoods17]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Yeah, cause Joe Blow that isn't a DU member wouldn't do this. Come on, man.

doesnt Joe Blow fall under this category?

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by cgoods17

doesnt Joe Blow fall under this category?

Lmao, nah man, that's his cousin, Jim Blow.

[Duck Butter]

1. HIP is not where the harvest numbers come from

2. The questions from the HIP survey put people into categories of how many waterfowl they kill

3. Harvest numbers come from people that are selected from the above process and then send in wings from all the ducks they harvest that year. Biologists identify the ducks by the wings and then extrapolate harvest data based on that. There is a multiplier used (its the same year in and year out so there is less bias)

4. Aerial counts are not an exact count. They extrapolate numbers on the transects and there is a multiplier used (its the same year in and year out so there is less bias)

5. Reason why mulitpliers are used is because there is no way to know how many ducks/deer/squirrels/turkeys/rabbits are killed. You take a subset of hunters and extrapolate from there. Most people don't like telling the truth about how many things they kill and that is a reason our deer tagging system is a disaster

6. If anyone has a way of getting an exact count of fish/deer/turkeys/squirrel harvest, please please speak up

7. I like lamp

[Smalls]

Originally Posted by Duck Butter

1. HIP is not where the harvest numbers come from

2. The questions from the HIP survey put people into categories of how many waterfowl they kill

3. Harvest numbers come from people that are selected from the above process and then send in wings from all the ducks they harvest that year. Biologists identify the ducks by the wings and then extrapolate harvest data based on that. There is a multiplier used (its the same year in and year out so there is less bias)

4. Aerial counts are not an exact count. They extrapolate numbers on the transects and there is a multiplier used (its the same year in and year out so there is less bias)

5. Reason why mulitpliers are used is because there is no way to know how many ducks/deer/squirrels/turkeys/rabbits are killed. You take a subset of hunters and extrapolate from there. Most people don't like telling the truth about how many things they kill and that is a reason our deer tagging system is a disaster

6. If anyone has a way of getting an exact count of fish/deer/turkeys/squirrel harvest, please please speak up

7. I like lamp

Look, Brick, there is no room for logic here. :*****:

lmao!

I should have been a little more clear with what I said before. Technically, you are right. The harvest estimates aren't directly related to the HIP numbers. But they still use those in the survey methodology to and the total harvest estimate is still based on the total hunters who complete a HIP. How else do you get to a 2.3 million duck harvest estimate, with a 30.6 ducks per hunter estimate, with only, what, 2000 hunters surveyed, if that?

[Duck Butter]

Originally Posted by Smalls

Look, Brick, there is no room for logic here. :*****:

lmao!

I should have been a little more clear with what I said before. Technically, you are right. The harvest estimates aren't directly related to the HIP numbers. But they still use those in the survey methodology to and the total harvest estimate is still based on the total hunters who complete a HIP. How else do you get to a 2.3 million duck harvest estimate, with a 30.6 ducks per hunter estimate, with only, what, 2000 hunters surveyed, if that?

That wasnt directed at you by the way but yes they do get the numbers from HIP participants.

I have never been asked to participate in the wing survey and only know of a couple people that have.

Aerial counts:
It would be very very expensive to fly every single body of water that holds ducks and to be able to get the best count, the surveys would have to be done simultaneously with multiple aircraft and thats just not feasible.

[noodle creek]

Originally Posted by Duck Butter

1. HIP is not where the harvest numbers come from

2. The questions from the HIP survey put people into categories of how many waterfowl they kill

3. Harvest numbers come from people that are selected from the above process and then send in wings from all the ducks they harvest that year. Biologists identify the ducks by the wings and then extrapolate harvest data based on that. There is a multiplier used (its the same year in and year out so there is less bias)

4. Aerial counts are not an exact count. They extrapolate numbers on the transects and there is a multiplier used (its the same year in and year out so there is less bias)

5. Reason why mulitpliers are used is because there is no way to know how many ducks/deer/squirrels/turkeys/rabbits are killed. You take a subset of hunters and extrapolate from there. Most people don't like telling the truth about how many things they kill and that is a reason our deer tagging system is a disaster

6. If anyone has a way of getting an exact count of fish/deer/turkeys/squirrel harvest, please please speak up

7. I like lamp

Thanks for a real answer